Ranking NFL Defenses: Predictions for the 2024 Season

As the NFL continues to be an offensively driven league, defenses are fighting back. Even elite offenses need solid defensive support to truly compete. Consistency in defense varies from year to year, making it challenging to predict the top units each season. Instead of ranking all teams, we group them based on their likelihood of finishing in the top 10 defensively, considering their personnel and coaching.

Most Unlikely
Arizona Cardinals, Denver Broncos, Los Angeles Chargers

These teams struggled defensively last season, ranking near the bottom in DVOA. Their depth charts don’t show significant improvements, making a top-10 finish unlikely. The Chargers have the best shot among them due to key players like Joey Bosa and Derwin James, but it’s still a long shot.

Somewhat Unlikely
Atlanta Falcons, Carolina Panthers, Detroit Lions, Indianapolis Colts, Los Angeles Rams, Minnesota Vikings, New Orleans Saints, New York Giants, Seattle Seahawks, Tampa Bay Buccaneers, Tennessee Titans, Washington Commanders

These teams have potential but face significant challenges. Coaching could be a difference-maker for some, like Atlanta and Washington. The Panthers have some standout players and a strong coordinator, while the Lions have upgraded their talent but still face uncertainties. The Rams and Saints are dealing with aging rosters and injuries, making a top-10 finish difficult. The Giants and Titans have intriguing pieces but need several things to go right. The Seahawks and Commanders rely heavily on their coaches to overachieve.

Possibly
Cincinnati Bengals, Green Bay Packers, Houston Texans, Jacksonville Jaguars, Miami Dolphins, New England Patriots, Philadelphia Eagles

These teams have the potential but are not sure bets. The Bengals made key signings but need consistency from young players. The Packers revamped their defensive backfield and brought in a new coordinator. The Texans added pass-rushing talent but need more depth. The Jaguars were a top-10 defense last season but face changes in coaching. The Dolphins have injury concerns, and the Patriots are an unknown without Belichick. The Eagles improved their secondary and coaching staff but need to rebound from last season.

Somewhat Likely
Buffalo Bills, Chicago Bears, Dallas Cowboys, Las Vegas Raiders, Pittsburgh Steelers

These defenses showed promise last season. The Bills, despite injuries, have a solid core and coaching. The Bears and Raiders finished strong last season and made key additions. The Cowboys lost some starters but retained key players. The Steelers consistently produce top-10 defenses and have the personnel to do so again.

Most Likely
Baltimore Ravens, Cleveland Browns, Kansas City Chiefs, New York Jets, San Francisco 49ers

These teams have strong defensive track records and retained key personnel. The Ravens and Browns consistently field top defenses. The Chiefs have a solid infrastructure despite some free-agent losses. The Jets boast a strong corner duo and depth across the defense. The 49ers are loaded with talent and remain elite despite changes in coaching.

In conclusion, while predicting defensive rankings is challenging due to yearly variations, these groupings provide a snapshot of which teams are most likely to excel based on their current rosters and coaching staff.