Mr. Biden continues to “embrace” Israel while continuing support after the Gaza conflict, but this has put pressure on Tel Aviv to restrain actions with Tehran.

On April 19, US President Joe Biden got what he wanted from Israel: a measured military response to Iran, causing minimal damage and not escalating tensions between Tel Aviv and Tehran into a full-scale war.

Israel has not publicly acknowledged the attack, but the explosions near the city of Isfahan in central Iran suggest it was a limited, small-scale, almost symbolic strike.

The Iranian military had previously claimed to have shot down three unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), causing some explosions in the skies over Isfahan but no damage on the ground. Iran said it had not found a link between the UAVs and Israel, and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian said Iran considered the matter closed and did not need to retaliate.

However, satellite images taken by Umbra Space about 5 hours after the attack show that the 30N6E radar belonging to Iran’s S-300PMU2 air defense missile system may have been damaged at the Natanz nuclear facility near the Isfahan base.

If the airstrike was indeed carried out by Israel, it would send a message to Tehran that Tel Aviv has the military capability to strike deep into Iranian territory, not just targeting proxy forces in Lebanon, Syria, and Iraq. They also demonstrate the ability to target important objectives such as Iran’s military bases and nuclear facilities, despite the presence of the S-300 air defense system.

However, the airstrike also seems calculated to not anger the Biden administration, which seeks to ease tensions in the Middle East as the crucial presidential elections in November approach. The US president may not be able to deter Washington’s adversaries, but he can restrain his allies with the “hug and hold” strategy, according to observers.

Previously, the US had multiple disagreements with Israel over the Gaza conflict. On April 9, President Biden stated that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had “made a mistake” in handling the conflict in Gaza, and he “did not agree with his approach,” while calling on Israel to cease fire.

Bilateral tensions escalated when Israel refused to accept a ceasefire, even launching airstrikes on a humanitarian aid convoy causing significant casualties, leaving Biden infuriated. However, the US President continued to provide weapons and ammunition to Israel, as well as vetoing resolutions against Tel Aviv in the UN Security Council.

This strategy of the US President has raised many questions, but observers believe it is part of Biden’s calculation to keep Israel within his sphere of influence.

“One reason is that Biden believes Israel has the right to self-defense. Second, the US President is an experienced foreign policy practitioner who understands that continuing Washington’s aid to Tel Aviv could provide leverage to restrain the rapid escalation of Middle East tensions into regional warfare, dragging the US into the fray and damaging the country in a crucial election year,” said Max Boot, a Washington Post analyst.

Boot believes the effectiveness of the Biden administration’s “hug and hold” strategy with Israel was clearly demonstrated by the airstrikes on Iran on April 19.

The risk of full-scale conflict in the region increased significantly after Iran launched over 300 UAVs and missiles into Israeli territory on April 13 in response to Israeli airstrikes on Iran’s embassy in Syria earlier in the month. This was the first time Iran launched a direct attack on Israel in 45 years of confrontation.

If Iran’s attack causes significant damage, Israel will be forced to respond proportionately, sinking the region into conflict, and trapping US forces. Instead of allowing this to happen, Biden pledged that the US military would assist Israel in defense with support from the UK, France, and Jordan. Even Saudi Arabia and other Gulf countries seem to have provided intelligence support to help Israel deal with the attack.

The US F-15 and F-16 fighter jets in northern Iraq shot down an Iranian ballistic missile, while two US warships in the eastern Mediterranean intercepted 4-6 ballistic missiles. With the support of allies and the Iron Dome defense system, Israel successfully intercepted 99% of the weapons from Iran and suffered minimal damage.

Israel’s national radio station Kan reported on April 17, citing a senior official speaking anonymously, that the country’s inner war cabinet had prepared a series of pre-emptive response plans before Tehran launched a large-scale attack on the night of April 13, including a lightning strike plan against Iran just hours later.

“However, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu abandoned the series of plans after a phone call with President Biden. We will retaliate, but the next actions seem to be vastly different from the prepared plans. Diplomatic sensitivity has prevailed,” the official said.

In the days that followed, President Biden and his aides lobbied corridors, arguing that Israel had “won” the confrontation and urging Tel Aviv to restrain retaliatory actions. Pressure from the US strongly influenced the Israeli public, as a survey released by Hebrew University this week showed that 74% of Israelis opposed retaliating against Iran if “it weakened the security alliance between the country and its allies.”

Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israel’s inner war cabinet realized they could not remain inactive but brushed off calls for strong retaliation from hardliners. Netanyahu told Likud party ministers that Israel’s response would be “reasonable and responsible,” according to the WSJ.

Netanyahu seems to have followed through with that, as Tel Aviv only conducted limited airstrikes near Isfahan. His government remained silent, neither taking responsibility nor denying involvement. Observers believe that Iran and Israel found an escape from the crisis partly due to Tel Aviv’s strategic “silence.”

The new sanctions against Iran announced by the US this week are also part of a conflict-containment policy. By targeting individuals involved in the missile program, the US aims to persuade its ally Israel to restrain escalation.

However, the sanctions do not target what Tehran cares most about: oil exports, which generate revenue of $36-40 billion annually. This is seen as an attempt to avoid provoking Iran even as the US imposes costs through constraints on deterrent capabilities.

While a full-scale regional conflict has been averted for now, observers believe the risk of Iran and Israel crossing red lines remains ever-present. They argue that active and consistent US engagement is needed to keep the hostility between Iran and Israel from spiraling out of control.

“The events of the past week show that firm, patient, and decisive leadership from the Washington administration can help steer the region away from the brink of war,” analyst Boot said.